The US economy is keeping track on a healthy and sound equilibrium as hiring, workers, and unemployment show encouraging data. On June 2024 the 4.1% US Unemployment Rate shows little change as both Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Insurance Claims increased during the same month. The data released by the BLS on July 5th of 2024 shows not only that the labor market is strong, but also that it regulates itself back to rational hiring levels. The slight increase of today’s Unemployment figure may not signal an economic slowdown amid summer, rather than:
- a cautious pace of hiring
- a vibrant optimist labor force with a lower number of discouraged workers
- a regular Insured Unemployment levels
This combination of factors is good news for the US labor market whenever the perils for the economy not only stem from “cooling” conditions, but also from “over heating” conditions. Today’s data may signal the beginning of a series of evidence points needed to assuage fears of increasing inflation driven by higher wages. The current 206,000 increase in non-farm payroll is lower than the twelve months average 220,000.
Likewise, on July 4th, 2024, the US Department of Labor released data on Unemployment Insurance Claims. The seasonal adjusted figures read 238,000 Claims Initiated during the last week of June 2024. The number of continued Insured Unemployed people for the week before was 1,8390,00 accordingly to the DOL. There seems not to be any worrisome signals coming from Insured Unemployment Rate.
Finally, data shows that employees remain optimists as well as cautious about their employment situation, which leads to a healthy balance for the economy. On the one hand, Labor Turn Over went back to what seems to be its normal levels after the Covid-19 Pandemic, and on the other, discouraged workers number went down keeping the labor force participation increasing over the months.
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