Signals of recession in the US intensified late this weeks with concerning news from GDP growth and Unemployment Insurance Claims climbing to slow-winter seasons levels. Econometricus’ Unemployment Rate Nowcast tracks Unemployment Insurance […]
The US Unemployment Rate remained almost unchanged at 4.1% during September 2024 according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors driving the monthly change were largely the […]
The Federal Reserve’s main facility that works as a transmission mechanism is working as expected. In the first cut in almost two years, the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances brought down the […]
July’s unexpected surge in the unemployment rate drove much of the attention to the labor market as a focus in the balance of risk for monetary policy. Most of the preliminary conclusions […]
Inflation curbed down in August to 2.5 percent; however, the Shelter Index jumped up to 4.95 percent. The Shelter Consumer Price Index went up for the first time after twelve months of […]
A stagnant labor market shows expectations of growth are neutral, thereby freezing employment growth. The current state of stagnation in the labor market has been visible in July and August’s stops in […]
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights. Survey data keeps pouring in, showing a resilient labor market that seems to be contradictorily weathering low expectations […]
Job separations were not any greater than any other July since 2010 – except for the pandemic years. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data release (September 4th, 2024) shed light on July’s […]
The balance of risks of the Federal Reserve dual mandate remains on the price stabilization side (mostly from wage inflation). July’s uptick in the Unemployment Rate, along with the Unemployment Insurance Claims […]
This week marks the third release of Unemployment Insurance New Claims since the unemployment rate rang the bells on what looked like a weakening labor market in July, thereby raising expectations for […]
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