The ongoing challenge in labor research is differentiating the COVID pandemic’s effects from other data influences. This blog highlights how COVID confounding complicates analysis in the nursing industry, impacting questions related to compensation and labor supply. It emphasizes the challenge of accurately interpreting data without clear causation due to pandemic-related noise.
Expectations for a divided government are mounting in America. Most recent polls support predictions that Democrats will control at least the House of Representatives. The current policy confrontations—whether over trade, immigration, inflation […]
Inflation concerns decline as Pulse (July 2026) surveys report high levels of price increase perception. Pulse Survey respondents reported a seven-point decline in “Very concerned” answers when asked how concerned they were […]
Employment levels in service and manufacturing occupations are being redesigned to accommodate or expand for AI. Whether through automation or augmentation, US counties with large shares of industrial manufacturing and service economies […]
Signals of recession in the US intensified late this weeks with concerning news from GDP growth and Unemployment Insurance Claims climbing to slow-winter seasons levels. Econometricus’ Unemployment Rate Nowcast tracks Unemployment Insurance […]
The US Unemployment Rate remained almost unchanged at 4.1% during September 2024 according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors driving the monthly change were largely the […]
The Federal Reserve’s main facility that works as a transmission mechanism is working as expected. In the first cut in almost two years, the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances brought down the […]
July’s unexpected surge in the unemployment rate drove much of the attention to the labor market as a focus in the balance of risk for monetary policy. Most of the preliminary conclusions […]
Inflation curbed down in August to 2.5 percent; however, the Shelter Index jumped up to 4.95 percent. The Shelter Consumer Price Index went up for the first time after twelve months of […]
A stagnant labor market shows expectations of growth are neutral, thereby freezing employment growth. The current state of stagnation in the labor market has been visible in July and August’s stops in […]
