Signals of recession in the US intensified late this weeks with concerning news from GDP growth and Unemployment Insurance Claims climbing to slow-winter seasons levels. Econometricus’ Unemployment Rate Nowcast tracks Unemployment Insurance […]
Recent stock and trade tariff turmoil have analyst measuring impact on the overall US economy. Econometricus will keep on tracking one of the first indicators on the labor market: Unemployment Insurance Claims. […]
The US Unemployment Rate remained almost unchanged at 4.1% during September 2024 according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors driving the monthly change were largely the […]
Inflation curbed down in August to 2.5 percent; however, the Shelter Index jumped up to 4.95 percent. The Shelter Consumer Price Index went up for the first time after twelve months of […]
A stagnant labor market shows expectations of growth are neutral, thereby freezing employment growth. The current state of stagnation in the labor market has been visible in July and August’s stops in […]
The week ending on 2024-08-31 registered a preliminary number of 227,000 new claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is significantly lower than its previous ten weeks running average of 234,545. […]
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights. Survey data keeps pouring in, showing a resilient labor market that seems to be contradictorily weathering low expectations […]
Job separations were not any greater than any other July since 2010 – except for the pandemic years. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data release (September 4th, 2024) shed light on July’s […]
The balance of risks of the Federal Reserve dual mandate remains on the price stabilization side (mostly from wage inflation). July’s uptick in the Unemployment Rate, along with the Unemployment Insurance Claims […]
This week marks the third release of Unemployment Insurance New Claims since the unemployment rate rang the bells on what looked like a weakening labor market in July, thereby raising expectations for […]
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