A stagnant labor market shows expectations of growth are neutral, thereby freezing employment growth. The current state of stagnation in the labor market has been visible in July and August’s stops in […]
Labor Market in need of higher expectations
[Econometricus Nowcast] Unemployment Insurance Claims lower than ten Weeks Average
The week ending on 2024-08-31 registered a preliminary number of 227,000 new claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is significantly lower than its previous ten weeks running average of 234,545. […]
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights. Survey data keeps pouring in, showing a resilient labor market that seems to be contradictorily weathering low expectations […]
July 2024 Job Separations Do Not Support Labor Economists’ Panic
Job separations were not any greater than any other July since 2010 – except for the pandemic years. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data release (September 4th, 2024) shed light on July’s […]
July’s Pulse Survey: Households think things are still pricey
The balance of risks of the Federal Reserve dual mandate remains on the price stabilization side (mostly from wage inflation). July’s uptick in the Unemployment Rate, along with the Unemployment Insurance Claims […]
Still no preliminary signs of labor market weakening
This week marks the third release of Unemployment Insurance New Claims since the unemployment rate rang the bells on what looked like a weakening labor market in July, thereby raising expectations for […]
Fed’s staff see the Labor Market as rebalancing instead of weakening
Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes (July 30–31, 2024) show that the Fed’s staff see the Labor Market as rebalancing instead of weakening (read US labor market is neither shrinking nor expanding, […]
[Econometricus Nowcast] New Unemployment Insurance Claims Still on the Lower Side
The week ending on 2024-08-17 registered a preliminary number of 232,000 new claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is not significantly different than its previous ten weeks running average of […]
US labor market is neither shrinking nor expanding
Considering recent data on Unemployment Insurance Claims where new issues are both not outstanding, and within the trend (227,000), as well as employment payroll lackluster additions (114,000), what labor analysts observe is […]
Industries that may adjust hiring as the Labor Market softens
Recent uptick in the Unemployment Rate may be a spillover of the so-called “Great Resignation”. The main effect of the phenomenon has been a tight Labor Market where employers struggled to find […]
