Signals of recession in the US intensified late this weeks with concerning news from GDP growth and Unemployment Insurance Claims climbing to slow-winter seasons levels. Econometricus’ Unemployment Rate Nowcast tracks Unemployment Insurance […]
The US Unemployment Rate remained almost unchanged at 4.1% during September 2024 according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The factors driving the monthly change were largely the […]
The balance of risks of the Federal Reserve dual mandate remains on the price stabilization side (mostly from wage inflation). July’s uptick in the Unemployment Rate, along with the Unemployment Insurance Claims […]
Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes (July 30–31, 2024) show that the Fed’s staff see the Labor Market as rebalancing instead of weakening (read US labor market is neither shrinking nor expanding, […]
Recent uptick in the Unemployment Rate may be a spillover of the so-called “Great Resignation”. The main effect of the phenomenon has been a tight Labor Market where employers struggled to find […]
The week ending on 2024-08-10 registered a preliminary number of 227,000 new unemployment insurance claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is significantly lower than its previous ten weeks running average […]
The reported number of unemployed people (7,163,000) plus the weekly mean of Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims (240,000) pushed the US Unemployment Rate to almost 4.4% during the month of July 2024. Interpreting […]
Despite recent labor market cooldown news, data show price increases may have a greater risk than unemployment rate increases. Analysts looking to understand the balance of risk within the Federal Reserve dual […]
County Unemployment Rate Worcester County 3.4 Allegany County 2.9 Baltimore city 3 Cecil County 2.3 Baltimore County 2.3 Carroll County 1.7 Calvert County 1.9 Dorchester County 2.4 Anne Arundel County 1.9 Frederick […]
The latest qualitative data, the Beige Book, shows flat to modest growth in economic activity across most of the US economy. The Cleveland and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Districts informed of softening […]
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