The latest qualitative data, the Beige Book, shows flat to modest growth in economic activity across most of the US economy. The Cleveland and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Districts informed of softening conditions across most economic sectors. Words such as “slight” or “moderate” dominate the narrative, while “strong” or “solid” were absent. Expectations about the next six months stand for lower growth rates than the current levels. The major factors affecting lower expectations are, to a lesser extent, inflation, and to a greater extent, the upcoming election cycle.

In depicting the qualitative insights provided by the Beige Book, we map statements onto three basic colors and a number scale as follows:

Thus, the July 17th 2024 Beige Book describes the state of the economy as follows:

The northern region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis registered spending was flat, labor demand weakened while residential sales had mixed signals. The region analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland also stated that economic conditions were weakening for business, employment levels, and consumer spending. It is worth noting that there is a lack of words like “strong” or “solid” growth in the current release. More precisely, the overall assessment asserts that labor markets grew at a “slight” pace while Labor Turnover decreased (See Econometricus Analysis on the same period Turnover). The report also reflects what Econometricus has seen on wage data by noting that the economy has seen “slow wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers”.

On the price side, the districts reported modest increases as consumer spending showed little to no change. Likewise, it is noted that “almost every district mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals”.

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