Signals of recession in the US intensified late this weeks with concerning news from GDP growth and Unemployment Insurance Claims climbing to slow-winter seasons levels.

Econometricus’ Unemployment Rate Nowcast tracks Unemployment Insurance new Claims to show the latest trend of the National Unemployment Rate. The week ending on 2025-04-26 registered a preliminary number of 241,000 new claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is significantly higher than its previous ten weeks running average of 226,090.9. The most recent monthly estimate of the US Unemployment Rate is 4.28 Percent. Considering the latest data available (published on 2025-03-01) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on both Labor Force Participation and Number of Unemployed People, the Unemployment Rate Nowcast reads at 4.29 percent.

New Insurance Claims increased its levels for the reported week by a difference of 18,000.