Despite recent labor market cooldown news, data show price increases may have a greater risk than unemployment rate increases. Analysts looking to understand the balance of risk within the Federal Reserve dual […]
All Eyes on Sticky Wage Inflation
“Slight” and “Moderate” dominate the narrative of US Economy
The latest qualitative data, the Beige Book, shows flat to modest growth in economic activity across most of the US economy. The Cleveland and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Districts informed of softening […]
Inflation concerns from overheated labor market may be over
Federal Reserve Officials’ concerns about the overheated labor market may be over. The focus now is on prices. Recent data on inflation suggests that the monetary policy effect on shelter prices is […]
Rent Prices Stickiness and the Latest CPI Data.
Fear of increasing inflation in the U.S. appear to be the trigger behind the market volatility of previous weeks. Recent gains in hourly compensation to workers have had analysts measuring the effect […]
Recent Narratives of Stock and Bond Bubbles.
On February 5th, 2018, Dow Jones index fell 1,175 points after the trading day. Four economic scenarios are being analyzed in the news as of the first week of February 2018. First, […]
The overuse of the word “Strong” in economic news.
The US economy added 228,000 new jobs in November of 2017 and analysts rush to assess the state of the economy as “STRONG.” Although the job reports are indeed good indicators of […]
Tempering retail sales expectations on holiday season 2017.
The US Holiday Season started with high anxiety for the Retail Industry as online retailers registered high volume of sales on Black Friday 2017. Pre-holiday season reports signaled not much change in […]
Raising economic expectations with the “after-tax” reckon: President Trump’s corporate tax cut plan.
The series of documents published by the White House Council of Economic Advisers indicate that President Donald Trump’s Tax Reform will end up being his economic growth policy. The most persuasive pitch […]
Implications of “Regression Fishing” over Cogent Modeling.
One of the most frequent questions in quantitative research is how to assess and rank the relevance of variables in multiple regression models. This uncertainty often arises when researchers prioritize data mining […]
I recognized Heteroscedasticity by running this flawed regression.
In a previous post, I covered how heteroscedasticity “happened” to me. The anecdote I mentioned mostly pertains to time series data. Given the purpose of the research that I was developing back […]
