Despite recent labor market cooldown news, data show price increases may have a greater risk than unemployment rate increases. Analysts looking to understand the balance of risk within the Federal Reserve dual […]
All Eyes on Sticky Wage Inflation
Two years of US Labor Market Lock-Down
July 2024 marks two years of constant decline in frictional unemployment levels. Labor Quits Data continue to show employees are staying put, while Separations Data show employers do not easily let go […]
“Slight” and “Moderate” dominate the narrative of US Economy
The latest qualitative data, the Beige Book, shows flat to modest growth in economic activity across most of the US economy. The Cleveland and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Districts informed of softening […]
Import Prices on the Rise Rapidly, Jeopardize US Inflation
International trade contributes mixed signals on import prices as fuel and major trade partners’ prices offset each other. Prices for all import items from Canada, Mexico, and Europe increased by 3.2 percent […]
Inflation concerns from overheated labor market may be over
Federal Reserve Officials’ concerns about the overheated labor market may be over. The focus now is on prices. Recent data on inflation suggests that the monetary policy effect on shelter prices is […]
More to wait on Inflation: Lagged Effect on Cost of Shelter
Core Inflation remains over the Federal Reserve Target 2% mostly driven by Cost of Shelter. However, Cost of Shelter shows a lagged effect from monetary tightening. It is a matter of time and […]
Rent Prices Stickiness and the Latest CPI Data.
Fear of increasing inflation in the U.S. appear to be the trigger behind the market volatility of previous weeks. Recent gains in hourly compensation to workers have had analysts measuring the effect […]
Timorous evidence of “Contagious Effect” after Dow Sell-Off.
The stock market seems to be returning to the old normal of higher levels of volatility. I suggested on Tuesday that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s comments could have brought back volatility by triggering […]
The Missing Part of the Dow Jones and Stock Market Sell-off Analysis.
The stock market keeps on sending signals of correction as the Dow Jones struggle to rebound from Monday’s 5th of February sell-off. Economic analysts began early in the week to point out […]
The overuse of the word “Strong” in economic news.
The US economy added 228,000 new jobs in November of 2017 and analysts rush to assess the state of the economy as “STRONG.” Although the job reports are indeed good indicators of […]
Econometricus.co 