The Federal Reserve’s main facility that works as a transmission mechanism is working as expected. In the first cut in almost two years, the Interest Rate on Reserve Balances brought down the […]
The Interest on Reserves Balances Facility passed its first two days of tests
An interest rate cut to shift expectations only
July’s unexpected surge in the unemployment rate drove much of the attention to the labor market as a focus in the balance of risk for monetary policy. Most of the preliminary conclusions […]
Shelter Price Index jumped up to 4.95 percent
Inflation curbed down in August to 2.5 percent; however, the Shelter Index jumped up to 4.95 percent. The Shelter Consumer Price Index went up for the first time after twelve months of […]
Labor Market in need of higher expectations
A stagnant labor market shows expectations of growth are neutral, thereby freezing employment growth. The current state of stagnation in the labor market has been visible in July and August’s stops in […]
[Econometricus Nowcast] Unemployment Insurance Claims lower than ten Weeks Average
The week ending on 2024-08-31 registered a preliminary number of 227,000 new claims. The US Department of Labor’s reported number is significantly lower than its previous ten weeks running average of 234,545. […]
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights
Now is the time for labor market analysts to turn to qualitative data insights. Survey data keeps pouring in, showing a resilient labor market that seems to be contradictorily weathering low expectations […]
July 2024 Job Separations Do Not Support Labor Economists’ Panic
Job separations were not any greater than any other July since 2010 – except for the pandemic years. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data release (September 4th, 2024) shed light on July’s […]
July’s Pulse Survey: Households think things are still pricey
The balance of risks of the Federal Reserve dual mandate remains on the price stabilization side (mostly from wage inflation). July’s uptick in the Unemployment Rate, along with the Unemployment Insurance Claims […]
Still no preliminary signs of labor market weakening
This week marks the third release of Unemployment Insurance New Claims since the unemployment rate rang the bells on what looked like a weakening labor market in July, thereby raising expectations for […]
Fed’s staff see the Labor Market as rebalancing instead of weakening
Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes (July 30–31, 2024) show that the Fed’s staff see the Labor Market as rebalancing instead of weakening (read US labor market is neither shrinking nor expanding, […]
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